Betting player awards is about identifying trends from past winners and meticulously understanding how voters approach the matter. The NBA Clutch Player of the Year award only started last season, so unfortunately, no precise long-term trends can be extrapolated.
However, the voting results from last season display a likely blueprint for the award. Check out below for Clutch Player of the Year best bets and key insight.
Lessons Learned From the 2022-23 NBA Season
The 2022-23 voting results were as follows:
- De’Aaron Fox (460 points)
- Jimmy Butler (104 points)
- DeMar DeRozan (80 points)
- Jalen Brunson (77 points)
- Joel Embiid (51 points)
- Donovan Mitchell (32 points)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31 points)
What can we make of this list? All seven players logged at least 34 clutch games and registered a usage percentage of at least 30, although most were nearer to 40. Therefore, contenders for the award must frequently find themselves in clutch situations and heavily control the offense.
Interestingly, none of these players cracked the top twenty in clutch assists per game, although everyone ranked in the top eleven in clutch points per game. To narrow it even further, volume scorers are highly valued instead of volume playmakers. That’s logical because humans inherently associate clutchness with heroics and a do-it-yourself mentality.
NBA ODDS & BEST BETS: Clutch Player of the Year Award Updates
Passing the ball equates to passing the risk of failure from a psychological perspective. Human memory also retains the last chain in a sequence far better than the middle links, and a player shooting the ball represents the last chain of the play. Nobody glorifies the game-winning pass, but laurels are bestowed on the shot-maker.
All but Mitchell and Gilgeous-Alexander breached a 60 true shooting percentage, so efficiency is important for being a premier contender. Finally, only DeRozan and Gilgeous-Alexander had a losing record in clutch games.
NBA ODDS & BEST BETS: Clutch Player of the Year Award Updates
Despite this blemish, DeRozan still managed to place third, which indicates that individual success will be rewarded. Voters love a player who carries his team and fights valiantly even if the wins don’t rack up; however, a superior win percentage will undoubtedly break a statistical tie.
In summation, the top scorer with excellent efficiency on an above-average team is the intended target.
NBA Clutch Player of the Year Best Bets
Donovan Mitchell (+1900 FD)
Mitchell perfectly fits the target player again this season. He ranked fifth in clutch field goal attempts per game and seventh in clutch usage percentage last season, so he drew a massive checkmark next to high-volume scoring.
Cleveland fought in 45 clutch games last year, good for sixth most in the NBA, and they should once again be an above-average team that wins many tight contests.
NBA ODDS & BEST BETS: Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers Updates
Mitchell finished sixth in the vote due to an abysmal clutch 53.3 true shooting percentage; however, he typically shines in these moments and owned a hyper-efficient regular season 61.4 true shooting percentage.
Look for Mitchell to regress to the mean and significantly bump his clutch efficiency. Max Strus’ addition also provides desperately needed off-ball shooting, creating more space for Mitchell to operate.
NBA ODDS & BEST BETS: Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers Updates
The implied probability of plus 1900 odds is five percent. In other words, Mitchell must win this award at this frequency for the bet to produce a positive expected value, which is the goal of sports betting.
Jalen Brunson (+2000 DK)
Last season, during the clutch, Jalen Brunson ranked fourth in points per game, seventh in field goal attempts per game, and owned an immaculate 62.2 true shooting percentage.
Despite having the 23rd-best clutch usage percentage, he managed to place fourth in voting through his Herculean scoring. Based on New York’s recent playoff run (where his usage percentage spiked six percent), Brunson should see a slight increase in clutch usage this season. He will fight for top clutch points scorer when factoring in his absurd efficiency.
NBA ODDS & BEST BETS: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks Updates
New York projects to be a plucky, rock-solid squad this season so that they will see plenty of close games. Brunson has it all: scoring volume, efficiency, and game volume. With +2000 odds, it boasts an implied probability of 4.76 percent.
