Houston Rockets
The Rockets were terrible this year, which was expected given that they traded away James Harden and Russell Westbrook, and as a result, they have the best odds of ending up with the top pick in the draft. However, they have a 52% chance of their pick falling inside the Top-4, which is significant because if that other 48% hits and they end up with the 5th pick in the draft, then Houston’s pick goes to Oklahoma City.
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This 2021 first-round pick from Houston was included in the Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook deal back in the summer of 2019. This pick was traded as a “pick swap,” and is conjoined with Miami’s 2021 1st Round Pick, so the OKC Thunder will keep the most favorable two picks out of Houston’s pick (Top-4 protected), Miami’s pick and their own. If this pick goes to the Thunder from Houston, then the Rockets will end up getting the least favorable pick of the three teams listed above.
Things can get really confusing around draft time, but once the ping pong balls are picked and we know the order, things will start making a lot more sense! The reason this Houston pick is significant is because it could end up being the #1 overall pick, which is what the Rockets are hoping for, but it could also end up falling outside of the Top-4 and go to the Thunder, giving them two Top-10 this year.
Not only could the Rockets greatly improve the Thunder if this pick is not inside the Top-4, but that would mean that a team with significantly less odds to get the #1 pick has jumped inside the Top-4 of the draft, which could change how things play out in the NBA over the next several years.
Teams like the Pelicans, Kings, Bulls Hornets, Spurs, Pacers and Warriors are all on the back end of the draft lottery and have less than a 5% chance of ending up with the #1 overall pick, but there is still a chance that they could move up in the draft at the expense of the Rockets.
If Houston’s card with their logo on it is not the last card shown by the NBA’s Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum at the NBA Draft Lottery at the end of June, then things will be very interesting heading into this year’s draft at the top of the board.
