New Orleans Pelicans

Out of any team in the league, the one team that needs to kind of overpay Lonzo Ball but not by much is the New Orleans Pelicans. If they truly want to keep Lonzo Ball, then they will have to offer him well over $15M per year, but the Pelicans do need to be careful about how much they offer him because they are not going to have much cap space to sign anyone else if they bring back Ball on a massive contract. 

None of the Pelicans core will be entering the final year of their contracts next season, giving them the ability to build around their current stars, but even with Lonzo Ball, the Pelicans are still not a solidified playoff team in the Western Conference. 

With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram continuing to improve as younger, All-Star talents, New Orleans has the capability to grow into a true threat in the West, but they are likely going to need another high-level, All-Star like talent to do so. 

Lonzo Ball is a great player, but he is not that third All-Star talent that will help the Pelicans contend in the Western Conference, which is why they cannot afford to overpay him. If the Pels are to become title contenders, they will need to be willing to pay a ton of luxury taxes, as they will likely need to trade for another star player. 

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If they re-sign Lonzo Ball to a massive contract though and overpay him, they will not have the ability to make another big move and bring in another high-level talent. As a result, the Pelicans are the #1 team in the league who cannot afford to overpay Lonzo Ball, but they also cannot afford to let him leave, putting them in a tough spot this offseason.