Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic nearly joined Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird as the only players to win three NBA MVPs in a row, but Joel Embiid stopped him. Can the reigning Finals MVP win another one? Get Most Valuable Player award trends and best bets below.
Recent NBA MVP Trends
Both traditional and advanced stats are excellent locations to examine for MVP. Of the past 15 winners, 80 percent led the NBA in Box Plus-Minus or BPM. It’s worth noting that LeBron James and Nikola Jokic paced the league in 2011 and 2023, respectively, and they both should have won MVP in those years. In addition, 100 percent of winners ranked in the top three of BPM.
86 percent also averaged 40 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game, so stuffing the box score is key. The following players hit this mark last season: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant, and Damian Lillard.
NBA MVP BETTING ODDS: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo Updates
Finally, 93 percent fell between ages 24 to 28, with the only exception being 22-year-old Derrick Rose. A statistical monster and analytics darling in their mid to late twenties is the subsequent target. It’s also not an award that sleepers typically win, so sticking to obvious names is key.
2023-24 NBA MVP Best Bets
Nikola Jokic (+450 DK)
Last season, Jokic averaged roughly 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists while leading the NBA in true shooting percentage and guiding Denver to the one seed. He easily paced the league at a whopping 13 BPM – the third-highest mark ever – and Jokic now owns the largest career BPM in NBA history too.
He didn’t stop there, as the Nuggets center won Finals MVP and became the first player to lead the playoffs in points, rebounds, and assists. In other words, Jokic was truly historic last year.
He will only be better this season and should again effortlessly produce the top BPM mark. Jokic has the numbers and team success, but voters also may feel guilty for snubbing him last season.
NBA MVP BETTING ODDS: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo Updates
Overall, Jokic is the clear favorite to collect his third MVP. His +450 odds hold an implied probability of 18.18 percent. Based on his profile, Jokic likely shatters this frequency.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+550 DK)
Giannis Antetokounmpo has ranked in the top five of BPM for the past five seasons, and he’s broken 40 combined points, rebounds, and assists in the last six, too. His stats are worthy of MVP, and the new acquisition of Damian Lillard enhances his game.
Lillard’s three-point shooting and pick-and-roll passing complement Antetokounmpo’s paint scoring perfectly, so Antetokounmpo’s efficiency likely rises even further. While Lillard likely steals volume, he only averaged about five more field goal attempts per game than Jrue Holiday.
Factor in a slight volume cut for Lillard, and Antetokounmpo may only see a few shots per game drop. Therefore, the Bucks big man should still hover around 30 points per game.
NBA MVP BETTING ODDS: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo Updates
Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo can fight for DPOY, and the Milwaukee Bucks will likely soar to the top of the standings again. If Jokic doesn’t win again, look for Antetokounmpo to secure MVP for the third time in his career. His +550 odds have an implied probability of 15.38 percent.
