Upgrade the Defensive Personnel in Their Starting Lineup

A theme for the Pacers has been their inability to contain dribble penetration or guard on-ball screens with consistency. Indiana is going to have to improve their dribble containment soon.

The two most glaring spots where Indiana has issues with their on-ball defense are the starting point guard and small forward positions. It is simply too difficult to guard dynamic playmaking talent with Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic.

There is a collection of basic on-court production data that illustrates the negative defensive impact that both Collison and Bogdanovic are providing the Pacers.

It starts with the fact that Indiana has a 107.1 defensive rating when Collison is on the floor and a 105.7 defensive rating when Bogdanovic is playing. Collison has the team’s worst defensive rating among the Pacers’ rotation players while Bogdanovic is tied with Doug McDermott for the second worst.

The results are telling when looking at the production that the Pacers have when Collison and Bogdanovic are on the sidelines. They have a 100.5 defensive rating when Collison is not playing and a 101.0 defensive rating without Bogdanovic. Those are the lowest off-court defensive ratings among their rotation players.

When looking at the 35 two-man combinations that have logged at least 50 minutes, there is a noticeable pattern. The five worst defensive combinations either include at least one of Collison or Bogdanovic with one including both.

Essentially the point is that Indiana is at their worst defensively when Collison and Bogdanovic are playing and are significantly better when they are off the floor.

Both Collison and Bogdanovic struggle to contain dribble penetration within the various types of plays within the flow of the game that requires that ability. It causes the team defense to have to be out of position too much and too often.

There are issues with both players being ineffective in off-ball defensive situations too. There are too many times when getting caught ball watching results in a cutter being able to get by for an easy basket, their assignment is allowed to crash the boards without much resistance, or a closeout is pursued late.

While the Pacers do not have a small forward that they can swap out Bogdanovic for and find greater defensive results, they at least have that luxury at the point guard position with Cory Joseph.

The Pacers have a team-best 98.7 defensive rating when Joseph is on the floor compared to a team-worst 110.9 defensive rating when is not playing. The gap between either of those figures is not particularly close either.

While the sample size may be only 39 minutes, the Pacers have an 83.5 defensive rating when Joseph shares the floor with Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young, and Myles Turner. While they have posted just a 90.3 offensive rating, the defensive improvement is telling nevertheless.

The Pacers do not appear suited for the type of small forwards or point guards that they may have to face in a potential first-round playoff series. It’s better to prepare from a personnel standpoint sooner rather than later for those matchups.

Indiana is certainly fine from a long-term perspective, though. They could wait to upgrade their starting point guard and small forward positions until the offseason since both Collison and Bogdanovic will be free agents.

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