Lauri Markkanen of the Utah Jazz shocked the NBA world last season by averaging over 25 points and becoming an All-Star starter. Which player will follow in his footsteps and break out? Get the Most Improved Player of the Year trends and best bets below.
Recent NBA Most Improved Player of the Year Trends
The last fifteen winners of the award provide valuable insight into voter preferences. 73 percent of the winners were in their third or fourth year (no second-year player won), and 86 percent fell between ages 22 to 25. Both the 2020 and 2021 NBA Drafts are therefore indicated.
100 percent of the winners had never reached an All-Star game before their selection, while 93 percent never previously averaged twenty points. However, 66 percent became first-time All-Stars during their Most Improved season, and 73 percent averaged twenty points for the first time.
Finally, 80 percent played for the same franchise as the previous season, and 66 percent of the winners were forwards. In summation, based on the last fifteen winners, we are seeking the following player: a returning forward from the 2020 or 2021 NBA Draft that averages twenty points and reaches the All-Star game for the first time this year.
The position is the least important aspect of the profile, although it should still be considered.
2023-24 NBA Most Improved Player of the Year Best Bets
Franz Wagner (+3500 DK)
This line is utterly insane and, subsequently, one of the best bets across sports. Franz Wagner fits the profile perfectly, as the eighth pick of the 2021 Draft is primed to explode this season.
The 6’10” Orlando Magic forward is an elite driver who scores efficiently on and off-ball while possessing tantalizing playmaking skills. Not many forwards in the NBA can create advantages like Wagner, who also defends numerous positions at a high level.
The two-way forward forms a perfect pair with Paolo Banchero, and the Orlando Magic are positioned to make the play-in. I’m projecting a stat line of 22 points, five rebounds, and four assists on excellent efficiency for the third-year forward. That production should get Wagner into the All-Star game, especially considering how weak the Eastern Conference is now.
NBA BETTING ODDS & NEWS: Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic Updates
Overall, +3500 odds have an implied probability of 2.78 percent. In other words, Wagner must win Most Improved Player of the Year 2.78 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. Wagner easily clears that hurdle for me, which deems this a hyper-valuable line.
Scottie Barnes (+1700 FD)
The fourth pick of the 2021 Draft by the Toronto Raptors somewhat regressed in his sophomore season after winning Rookie of the Year. His efficiency plummeted, and Scottie Barnes’ defense dipped. However, his playmaking flourished, and he’s now the primary creator for Toronto with Fred VanVleet in Houston.
Barnes’ usage percentage will skyrocket, which boosts both his numbers and value. He managed 15.3 points per game last season despite poor efficiency, so Barnes should clear the twenty thresholds when factoring in increased usage and efficiency. His defense likely rebounds, too; this adds another level of perceived improvement for voters.
NBA BETTING ODDS & NEWS: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors Updates
Barnes may reach the All-Star game in the weak East, given his projected numbers, and Toronto being in the playoff mix also adds an air of success to his case. His +1700 odds hold a 5.56 percent implied probability.
