The NBA season begins on October 25th, so it’s the final call for all pre-season futures, including win totals. This prop aims to identify whether the franchise will go over or under the offered line. Get NBA win totals, best bets, and analysis below.

New Orleans Pelicans Under 45.5 Wins (-135 DK)

Talent has never been the question surrounding New Orleans. They were 23-12 and held the second seed in the West last year before injuries brutally struck. It’s nothing new, as the ailing Pelicans have been injured recently. 

The season hasn’t even started yet, and New Orleans faces difficulties. Rising star Trey Murphy III injured his meniscus in early September, and he’s expected to return sometime around mid-December. Factor in rust, and Murphy may not be fully functional until January 1st. That’s 31 games or 37.8 percent of the season.

Meanwhile, Zion Williamson has missed 62.9 percent of regular season games since being drafted, while Brandon Ingram is 27.5 percent post-trade to New Orleans. Three of their four best players are likely to miss extended time this season. 

NBA BETTING ODDS: Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans Updates

Even assuming decent health, the roster contains noticeable flaws. New Orleans struggled mightily to protect the rim last season, with Jonas Valanciunas manning the middle. They ranked 29th in defending finishes at the rim per ShotQuality, 28th in Basketball Index’s rim protection metric, and allowed the largest opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area. It’s difficult to field an above-average defense if opponents effortlessly score at the rim. 

Despite this wart, New Orleans managed to be sixth in Defensive Rating; however, they were aided by tremendous shooting luck. The Pelicans gave up the fifth most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions last year, and opponents only shot 34.4 percent on those attempts – the lowest mark across the NBA.

NBA BETTING ODDS: Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans Updates

In other words, New Orleans bled open attempts from deep but fortunately saw opponents miss. Given that the Pelicans must routinely shade inside to help Valanciunas protect the rim, it’s probable that opponents once again rack up open threes. Positive shooting regression should cause New Orleans’ Defensive Rating to plummet. 

Finally, 32-year-old CJ McCollum displayed red flags last year in terms of age-related decline. He had a career-low frequency of shots within three feet of the basket while simultaneously posting a career-high frequency of shots in between three to ten feet.

Essentially, McCollum pulled up for a jumper more often because he lost a bit of burst, which previously allowed him to get to the rim. He also ranked 528th of 539 players in True Shooting Points Added, so his efficiency took a sharp dive as well. McCollum remains a quality player, but the days of near All-Star production are quickly diminishing. 

NBA BETTING ODDS: Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans Updates

Overall, fading the Pelicans due to injuries and defensive issues is wise, especially in this savage Western Conference. That’s not to say the Pelicans won’t breach 40 wins, but 46 is a bridge too far. Wins will be extremely difficult to secure, as eleven teams own a legitimate claim to make the playoffs. Plus, the West’s bottom feeders are no longer pushovers.

Miami Heat Under 45.5 Wins (-120 DK)

The Heat’s off-season was a disaster to say the least. They couldn’t strike a deal for All-NBA guard Damian Lillard, who would have considerably boosted their championship equity. Miami also lost key pieces Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in free agency without replacing them. The duo was third and fifth in playoff minutes per game for the Heat. 

Miami’s guard room is an absolute mess at the moment. 37-year-old Kyle Lowry and defensive liability Tyler Herro form a below-average starting backcourt with glaring flaws. The Heat own little depth behind them, too. Josh Richardson is a solid 3&D option, but his lack of ball handling and playmaking limit his overall impact.

NBA BETTING ODDS: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat Updates

Duncan Robinson theoretically provides spacing, yet he routinely runs ice-cold and cannot defend. Finally, RJ Hampton remains unproven, while rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr cannot consistently bring the ball up as an orchestrator. Miami’s lack of floor generals will ultimately diminish their offensive shot quality and rhythm. 

A connected issue to their guard depth is a lack of perimeter shooting. They ranked 27th in three-point percentage last year, and two of their top three players (Vincent and Strus) in three-point catch-and-shoot efficiency last season departed. Only Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin inspire any confidence of approaching 38 to 40 percent from deep. Given that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo need spacing to thrive, it’s a concerning roster blemish. 

Finally, the Heat don’t care about the regular season. That’s not to say they don’t mind losing games, but rather that they won’t over-push for a seed to their detriment by running their veterans into the ground before the playoffs. Miami is no stranger to dark horse runs as a bottom seed and believes home-court doesn’t matter much to them. 

NBA BETTING ODDS: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat Updates

Miami’s roster isn’t built for the regular season due to their shaky shooting, abundance of veterans, and lack of depth. Over 82 games, the Heat cannot hide from the consequences of these flaws. Their defense is too good for them to sink, but 46 wins doesn’t appear to be within their grasp, especially since the Eastern Conference considerably improved.

Orlando Magic Over 36.5 Wins (-125 DK)

With Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr on the court together, the Magic outscored opponents by 2.7 points per 100 possessions last season. Considering their youth, it’s impressive that the trio won their minutes. They managed to conjure more wins than expected; the Magic were 29-28 after December 6th. 

Banchero and Wagner are both elite forwards with uncanny playmaking and scoring abilities for their size. Orlando is set with those two operating as on-ball creators. The duo should take a major leap with another season under their belts, and the surrounding core is quickly rounding into form, too. 

NBA BETTING ODDS: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic Updates

Markelle Fultz flashed as a downhill pick-and-roll orchestrator last year and thrived inside the arc. The former first-overall pick displayed the traits that secured him that draft slot. Carter Jr embraced his stretch center role but also significantly weaponized his screens when he slipped to the basket.

Meanwhile, Gary Harris shot 43.1 percent from deep while holding his own defensively. In addition to desirable starters, the bench is flush with talent. Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Jonathan Isaac, Anthony Black, and Jett Howard are all former top fifteen picks that fill whatever role is needed. Finally, veterans Joe Ingles and Moritz Wagner inject a dash of leadership while soaking up minutes. 

NBA BETTING ODDS: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic Updates

Overall, this youthful Magic squad is brimming with premier talent that complements each other well. Although they are not ready to fight for home-court advantage, the roster is too talented only to reach 36 wins, especially since they managed 34 last season.