Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero earned Rookie of the Year honors last season, and the field resets again with the 2023 NBA Draft class. Can anyone topple heavy favorite Victor Wembanyama? Get Rookie of the Year award trends and best bets below.
Recent NBA Rookie of the Year Trends
The top picks dominate the award, as 80 percent of the last fifteen winners were drafted in the top four of their respective drafts. In addition, the first overall pick won 46 percent of the time.
Offensive stats are key for voters, too. A total of 93 percent cleared fifteen points per game, while 86 percent exceeded three assists per game. Rookies must command much of the offense to contend for the award; 86 percent had at least a 22 usage percentage, and 53 percent reached a 25 usage percentage.
NBA BETTING NEWS & ODDS: Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson Updates
For context, Jimmy Butler, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, and Josh Giddey hovered around a 25 usage percentage last season. Finally, 66 percent of the last fifteen winners were guards, although it’s the least important aspect of these trends.
A top pick that dominates usage while racking up points and assists is a strong blueprint. Guards are preferred but hardly a sticking point.
2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year Best Bets
Victor Wembanyama (+130 FD)
Sometimes it is this simple. The first overall pick enters the NBA as one of the best prospects ever due to his combination of scoring, ball handling, playmaking, and defense at 7’4” tall.
San Antonio doesn’t possess elite high-volume passers that will dominate the ball, and the Spurs should frequently run plays through Wembanyama to expand his game.
Therefore, he likely averages a decent amount of assists. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are the only other players racking up field goal attempts, so there will be plenty of shots for Wembanyama.
NBA BETTING NEWS & ODDS: Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson Updates
Finally, the Spurs produced the worst Defensive Rating in NBA history last year, so Wembanyama’s superb rim protection can immediately make a noticeable impact.
He is unlike anything the league has seen, so novelty may sway voters in a tight race, too. Overall, it’s Wembanyama’s award to lose.
Scoot Henderson (+310 FD)
With Damian Lillard traded, Scoot Henderson now enters a deserted throne room holding the keys to the castle. The third overall pick is a dynamic pick-and-roll scorer and playmaker with astute court vision. As
Portland’s de facto point guard, Henderson, will orchestrate the offense and rack up counting stats. He should clear fifteen points and three assists without too much difficulty. If Wembanyama doesn’t win, Scoot Henderson will likely be the reason.
NBA BETTING NEWS & ODDS: Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson Updates
His +310 odds hold an implied probability of 24.39 percent. In other words, Henderson must win the award at this frequency for the bet to own a positive expected value. Henderson has the tools to achieve this feat based on his draft selection and projected role.
