Miami Heat Receive: F Julius Randle, 2023 First-Round Pick (NYK)
New York Knicks Receive: G Tyler Herro, G/F Duncan Robinson
Sometimes, the value being exchanged in a given trade is obvious. This is not one of those trades.
Julius Randle is especially hard to put a price on. He had a 2020-21 season that Tyler Herro would be lucky to ever replicate in terms of production. At the same time, he had a 2021-22 season that Herro would prefer to avoid.
We decided the Miami Heat should get the draft capital in this exchange with that in mind. They’re taking a gamble on Randle here. If he gets back to his 2020-21 form, they’re getting a steal here. It will make them a better team in 2022-23. If he’s the same player the Knicks had last season, at least the Heat get the pick.
On the other hand, the Heat may not be willing to take that risk. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry are only getting older. If the Heat decide they’re only willing to move Herro for an obvious upgrade, this trade won’t suit them.
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In that event, these two Eastern Conference rivals may need to enlist a third team in order to finalize a deal.