When the Dallas Mavericks jumped out to a 9-4 start to the 2021-22 NBA season, many cautioned that the team would experience a regression to the mean sooner than later. While Dallas was winning games, they were getting lucky to do so as the numbers didn’t correlate to a team that many games over the .500 mark.
The people anticipating a regression were correct. Dallas has gone 5-11 since that stretch. Some of that can be attributed to Luka Doncic being in and out of the lineup because of a knee and ankle injury suffered against the Denver Nuggets.
Doncic missed the next three games and Dallas lost each one. He is sidelined once again with the injury, which is causing the team to slide ever further down the standings. In eight games without their franchise player, the Mavericks have gone 2-6 thus far this season, and he could be sidelined a few more.
Getting him in shape and healthy is imperative to the team finding success and getting back on track. They are hoping that another regression to the mean occurs, as the team’s 3-point shooting has been AWOL thus far this season.
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During the offseason, one of the points of focus for Dallas was bringing in shooters to help space the court, opening things up for Doncic to operate. If they were unable to find a secondary ball-handler to pair with him, they wanted to make sure they created as much space as possible with shooting.
While a sound strategy, it has not panned out as they had hoped. 3-point shooting is down around the league, but arguably no team has felt it as badly as the Dallas Mavericks have.
The Mavericks have five players thus far this season, Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis and Reggie Bullock have attempted at least 100 3-pointers thus far this season. All five of them have seen a drop in their shooting percentages and it is costing the Mavericks dearly.
Of the five, Bullock has seen the most drastic drop-off. After knocking down 41 percent of his 3-pointers last season with the New York Knicks, he is down to 27 percent thus far this season.
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Porzingis is down to 29 percent after making 38 percent last season, while Hardaway is down to 33 from 39. Luka Doncic is also shooting 33 percent, down from 35 last season. Finney-Smith has the best percentage of the bunch at 37 percent this season, after making 39 percent during the 2021-22 campaign.
Last season, those five players shot a combined 38 percent from the 3-point line. This season, they are down to 32 percent, which is costing Dallas about five points per game according to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton.
On the season, the Mavericks average point differential is -0.4. If you add in the nearly five points per game they are missing, so let’s say it could be around 4-4.5, Dallas would be in the top-10 of the league instead of in the bottom half.
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While there is no guarantee that they will be able to replicate their success from last season, these are five players that have proven to be solid shooters throughout their careers. Reaching last season’s numbers may not occur, but the odds are in favor of the Dallas Mavericks turning things around and shooting it better the remainder of the season than they have through 29 games.
