Candidate #1: Stanley Johnson
Stanley Johnson is probably the least likely candidate for a breakout due to how much he must improve offensively to have a breakout and the fact that he has gotten a sufficient chance at playing time. He started off his career as the sixth man on the 2015-2016 Pistons team that made the playoffs. He wasn’t efficient offensively, as he shot 37.5 percent from the field and 30.7 percent from 3-point range. However, he displayed confidence for such a young player and was solid defensively. The expectation was that he would improve his efficiency and at least be passable on offense, except that never happened.
Stanley Johnson struggled his 2nd season as his minutes dipped from 23.1 as a rookie to 17.8; he found himself in Stan Van Gundy’s doghouse and even spent some time in the G-League. He only averaged 4.4 points per game, down from 8.1, and only shot 35.3 percent form the field and 29.2 percent from 3 point range.
After the trade of Marcus Morris, Stanley Johnson found himself in the starting lineup last season, and he started off the season pretty solid. After shooting 0-13 on opening night, he shot 51 percent over his next 9 games. Johnson appeared to be finally putting things together until he missed 3 games due to back spasms. When he returned, he never regained his offensive momentum he had before the injury. He finished the season starting 50 of 69 games played and averaged a career-high with 27.4 minutes per game, however, he only shot 37.5 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from 3. He beat his career-high in scoring with 8.7 points per game, but didn’t get any more efficient offensively.
All of this goes to show that Stanley Johnson needs to have an incredible jump in efficiency in order to be a breakout player. The defensive skills are there and he can handle the ball pretty well, so his only path to improvement is offensively. Expecting Johnson to make that big of an improvement in his shooting ability in one offseason is very unlikely. He will likely be used differently under Dwane Casey than Stan Van Gundy used him, but it is hard to see a player who has been given plenty of opportunity early in his career make a huge improvement when he hasn’t shown any sign of improvement through 3 seasons.
Next Up: Candidate #2
